Monday, December 27, 2010

cash is eroding at ANF

My background, incidentally, is this: my father was in retail, the President (albeit not CEO) of a mid-sized Abercrombie-like concept back in the mid 1970s (good ups) into the early 1980s (it ended in bankruptcy).
My father taught me two things in life. First, the "unable for retail;" This, because all retail concepts die, and higher retail advertising leaflet, the bigger the crash (sharp image), who is it? . Second, "you'd better ask your mother."
Well, although my mother has no Wall Street analysts, her own retail exec (ladies who would understand the buyer) below.
Ultra-high margins are not sustainable in a recession. Management’s assertion that it would hold the line on its 67% gross margin is being revealed as false on Abercrombie.com, where this year’s Spring Lines are priced 10% to 15% lower than last year’s.
  • “Aspirational” mid-luxury products – particularly clothing, where ready substitutes are available – take a big hit in a recession. Most often, these hits require a complete re-think of a retailer’s business model.
  • The momentum of a retailer who “grows up” in good times, like ANF, is cut off at the knees in bad times. The aspirational draw – big stores in pricey malls, in the priciest locations within those malls– acts as the worst form of leverage (the cost of existence) in bad times.
  • The ego of a visionary founder works against the company. Michael Jeffries is a great salesman and marketer. But he may need to learn humility… as Ralph Lauren will tell you he got in two different recessions (early 1980s, early 1990s), in order to ride out the third (early 2000s).
  • Cash is king in retail. And cash is eroding at ANF, and you would be a fool not to recognize it.

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