Thursday, November 25, 2010

Consider True Religion

I'm a believer in growth stocks. As an analyst for our Motley Fool Rule Breakers service, I think you should be a believer too. But even I have to admit some growth stories are bogus -- hence this regular series.
Next up: Joe's Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ). Is this casual apparel maker the real thing? Let's get to the numbers.
Foolish facts
Metric
Joe's Jeans
CAPS stars (out of 5)****
Total ratings534
Percent bulls97.8%
Percent bears2.2%
Bullish pitches90 out of 94
Highest rated peersRocky Brands, LaCrosse Footwear, Weyco Group
Data current as of Sept. 27.
High performance of the stock is often high-performing attention stupid, many of the top stock pickers in motley fool hat like Joe jeans.
"Obviously it is a small cap and play," wrote all-star investors TSIF February, "in 1 billion dollar hat select threshold. Only 7-9 per cent profit, (typically retail). Debt is half of cash on hand. The personage inside course of study has been pumping largely 13.5 dollars. With (26%), the ownership of the their sales are still relatively small. The game has a risk, because of" retail takes.
I am not a fashionista, so I can't tell you whether Joe's design will continue to exist. But in the streets, have enough faith in this development project 71% annual income of the story in the next few years, according to raise capital IQ. Even if the number of the half, shares Joe's could enjoy a huge rallies and today's level.
The elements of growth
Metric
Last 12 Months
2009
2008
Normalized net income growth6.6%12.8%207.5%
Revenue growth37.1%15.8%10.2%
Gross margin47.8%49.7%47.2%
Receivables growth96.2%100.1%7.7%
Shares outstanding58.3 million61.4 million59.8 million
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
There's mostly good news in this table. Let's review:
  • Normalization of net income, say, normalized. This is not necessarily a bad thing, especially income growth is accelerating.
    The account receivable, meanwhile, also moved hypergrowth level. This will be worse - can reflect a business can't receive what is owed -- if not speed up revenue growth. On the contrary, I see a band of people into a development stage, accord with Wall Street's great expectations of the annual income of improvement.
    If I'm right, then administrative work, in order to keep a lid on the holders of tradable shares is doubly important. First, it shows that the good governance. Second, it brings the existing owner who can greatly benefit maximization for eps growth.Competitor and peer checkup
Competitor
Normalized Net Income Growth (3 yrs.)
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF)(35%)
Coach (NYSE: COH)3.6%
Guess? (NYSE: GES)17.2%
Joe's JeansNot material
Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL)3.9%
Steve Madden (Nasdaq: SHOO)12.9%
True Religion Apparel (Nasdaq: TRLG)29.2%
Source: Capital IQ. Data current as of Sept. 27.
Unfortunately, we don't have enough data to provide a straight-line comparison between Joe's and its closest peers. And it's not like there aren't other great growth stories to choose from. Consider True Religion. The premium jeans maker has enjoyed massive growth over the past three years, and it still trades for a fraction of what analysts estimate as its long-term growth potential. Joe's may offer more risk without much more reward.

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